This week’s Japan Pokémon card market isn’t crashing uniformly — it’s splitting by grade. Raw (ungraded) MEGA cards are still working through their 30-day post-release cooldown: the steepest drop belongs to Mega Darkrai ex SAR, down -39.2% over 30 days, while Mega Rayquaza ex’s SAR and MUR prints are down -27.4% and -31.2% respectively. But PSA 10 graded copies of those same cards are moving in the opposite direction — Rayquaza SAR is up +23.8% for the week, MUR up +31.3% — and MUR’s raw weekly line is essentially flat at +0.7%. The medians, volume-weighted averages and sale counts for the 5 cards below are all drawn from actual completed sales, not asking prices.
TL;DR
- 5 high-value Japan-market Pokémon cards all saw their raw price fall this week, with declines ranging from -12.8% to -39.2% — Mega Darkrai ex SAR (#3) fell the furthest, down -39.2% over 30 days.
- The two Mega Rayquaza ex prints (#1 SAR, #2 MUR) show a rare split: raw prices fell -27.4% and -31.2% respectively, while PSA 10 rose +23.8% and +31.3% against the trend — but with only 14 and 13 PSA 10 sales behind them, those gains shouldn’t be read as a stable trend.
- Mega Charizard X ex (#5) fell by a similar margin to the others (down 30.5% over 30 days), but at an entry-level price point (¥5,000 median); its PSA 10 side logged the deepest sample of the week at 311 sales — the only card here where graded volume far outweighs raw.
Why the split between falling raw prices and rising PSA 10s?
Once the peak pack-opening rush passes, more raw copies get listed and sale prices compress toward the middle of the range. The PSA 10 side, by contrast, has very few sales to go on — just 14 for Rayquaza SAR and 13 for MUR — so one or two high sales are enough to move the entire line, and a rise built on that few data points can’t be treated as a stable trend.
This list is built from actual sale records in Japan’s market, comparing the most recent 30 days against the prior 60 days (a T-90 to T-30, non-overlapping baseline). To qualify, a raw sale must sit at or above the P75 price tier within its own set, with a 30-day decline of at least 25%; ranking is by sale volume multiplied by the size of the decline. Prices use VWAP (volume-weighted average price), with any single outlier sale excluded. Cards with fewer than 5 PSA 10 sales show no graded column at all; fewer than 10 shows a median only, with no week-on-week move. Raw covers Raw/Ungraded grades, and B4U/BSO self-purchases are excluded. The figures below reflect actual completed sales only — not a price forecast.
This Week’s 5 Biggest Japan Pokémon Card Price Drops
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#1
Mega Rayquaza ex SAR Mega Rayquaza ex SAR — Storm Emerald [M6 110/076]
Mega Rayquaza ex SAR
#110/076 · Special Art Rare
Storm Emerald (ストームエメラルダ)
30-Day Median (Raw, Near-Mint)
¥41,000
4-Week Price Trend (Raw VWAP)
Search & Buy Now ›Why up / down / popular?
Mega Rayquaza ex SAR (メガレックウザex SAR, M6 110/076) is the flagship card of the “Storm Emerald” expansion, and this week’s most solidly-sampled raw card: 114 recorded sales over 30 days, with a Japan market median of ¥41,000 and a volume-weighted average of ¥41,183 — the two figures sit almost on top of each other, meaning the sale price band is tightly clustered rather than pulled up by a handful of extreme sales. The raw price is down -27.4% over 30 days, and another -10.9% in the past week alone — the correction is still underway. The graded side, though, is moving in an entirely different direction: PSA 10 median ¥147,000, volume-weighted average ¥147,243, up +23.8% for the week — the opposite direction from the raw side. But PSA 10 has only 14 sales, a thin sample, so this rise shouldn’t be read as a stable trend. Rayquaza is an evergreen fan-favourite character, and the SAR artwork is eye-catching in its own right — the high price during the pack-opening rush was largely propped up by opening-frenzy demand; once that frenzy faded and listings caught up, raw sale prices narrowed back toward the middle of the range.
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#2
Mega Rayquaza ex MUR Mega Rayquaza ex MUR — Storm Emerald [M6 113/076]
Mega Rayquaza ex MUR
#113/076 · Ultra Rare
Storm Emerald (ストームエメラルダ)
30-Day Median (Raw, Near-Mint)
¥98,000
4-Week Price Trend (Raw VWAP)
Search & Buy Now ›Why up / down / popular?
The same Mega Rayquaza ex, but the MUR print (メガレックウザex MUR, M6 113/076), tells a different story. Its raw price is down -31.2% over 30 days, a wider drop than the SAR’s -27.4% — but break it down by week and the picture flips: MUR is up just +0.7% in the past week, essentially flat, meaning the sharpest part of the decline happened earlier in the month. It logged only 37 raw sales over 30 days, with a Japan market median of ¥98,000 and a volume-weighted average of ¥98,636 — an extremely tight gap, but with a sample that thin, one or two large sales are enough to move the whole line. The graded side swings even harder: PSA 10 median ¥319,999, volume-weighted average ¥320,072, up +31.3% for the week — the sharpest rise of the week — but backed by only 13 sales, a textbook thin-sample price jump that shouldn’t be read as a trend. Top-tier rarities like this have few holders and slow listing turnover, so any price here has to be read alongside its sale count.
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#3
Mega Darkrai ex SAR Mega Darkrai ex SAR — Abyss Eye [M5 114/081]
Mega Darkrai ex SAR
#114/081 · Special Art Rare
Abyss Eye (アビスアイ)
30-Day Median (Raw, Near-Mint)
¥21,000
4-Week Price Trend (Raw VWAP)
Search & Buy Now ›Why up / down / popular?
Mega Darkrai ex SAR (メガダークライex SAR, M5 114/081) is this week’s biggest decliner, and it’s falling on both sides at once: the raw price is down -39.2% over 30 days, and another -13% in the past week alone, while PSA 10 is also down -9.5% for the week — none of the graded-side reversal seen with Rayquaza. Its situation differs from Rayquaza’s: the M5 “Abyss Eye” set released earlier than M6, so it has already worked through the peak pack-opening frenzy, unsold stock has had time to build up, and sellers are starting to accept lower prices to move it. One detail worth noting: the raw median is ¥21,000, but the volume-weighted average is actually lower, at ¥20,688 — meaning the bulk of sales skew toward the lower end; the PSA 10 median is ¥44,000 with a volume-weighted average of ¥41,974, the same pattern of the average sitting below the median. But the raw side had only 19 sales over 30 days (versus 90 for PSA 10), a thin sample, so the -39.2% figure is better read as a direction than a precise decline. Darkrai has always been a steady favourite among the franchise’s dark-type characters, and this pullback is mostly a set-cycle issue.
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#4
Pikachu ex SAR Pikachu ex SAR — Starter Deck 100 “Battle Collection” [MC 764/742]
Pikachu ex SAR
#764/742 · SAR
Starter Deck 100 “Battle Collection”
30-Day Median (Raw, Near-Mint)
¥138,000
4-Week Price Trend (Raw VWAP)
Search & Buy Now ›Why up / down / popular?
Pikachu ex SAR (ピカチュウex SAR仕様, MC 764/742) comes from Starter Deck 100 “Battle Collection.” Unlike the two Mega Rayquaza cards above, this is one where both graded and ungraded prices are falling together: the ungraded VWAP has fallen for four straight weeks, from ¥176,050 three weeks ago to ¥131,132 this week, down another -5.9% this week alone; the PSA 10 median is ¥239,000, also down -16.5% week-on-week — the same direction as the raw side. The PSA 10 side has 43 recorded sales, a thicker sample than several of the other rarities here, making this decline relatively reliable; the raw 30-day median sits at ¥138,000, showing this card cooling in both the graded and ungraded markets at once, rather than moving in only one direction. (This card’s source data was missing an analysis paragraph; the text above uses only the figures already on the page, with no causal explanation added.)
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#5
Mega Charizard X ex Mega Charizard X ex MA — Mega Dream ex [M2a 223/193]
Mega Charizard X ex
#223/193 · Mega Attack Rare
Mega Dream ex (MEGAドリームex)
30-Day Median (Raw, Near-Mint)
¥5,000
4-Week Price Trend (Raw VWAP)
Search & Buy Now ›Why up / down / popular?
The last entry on this list is the entry-level price point: Mega Charizard X ex (メガリザードンXex MA, M2a 223/193), from the high-class pack “Mega Dream ex.” Its raw price is down 30.5% over 30 days and another -12.8% in the past week — a similar magnitude to the cards above — but it lives in an entirely different price bracket: the Japan market median is just ¥5,000, with a volume-weighted average of ¥4,940, meaning raw sales cluster tightly around the ¥5,000 line. The real story here is volume: only 25 raw sales, versus 311 for PSA 10 (median ¥13,400, volume-weighted average ¥16,258, down -7.8% for the week) — the deepest sample this week, showing that even during a pullback, trading in the graded side of this Charizard IP never really slows down. The PSA 10 volume-weighted average also sits noticeably above the median, meaning a handful of higher-price sales are pulling the average up — worth reading the median and the average separately here.
![Mega Rayquaza ex SAR card [M6 110/076]](https://images.scrydex.com/pokemon/m6_ja-110/large)
![Mega Rayquaza ex MUR card [M6 113/076]](https://images.scrydex.com/pokemon/m6_ja-113/large)
![Mega Darkrai ex SAR card [M5 114/081]](https://images.scrydex.com/pokemon/m5_ja-114/large)
![Pikachu ex SAR card [MC 764/742]](https://images.scrydex.com/pokemon/mc_ja-764/large)
![Mega Charizard X ex card [M2a 223/193]](https://images.scrydex.com/pokemon/m2a_ja-223/large)
Eligibility at a Glance
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Mega Rayquaza ex’s raw price fall while its PSA 10 price rose?
Because the two sides have different supply-and-demand structures: once the pack-opening rush passes, more raw copies get listed and sale prices compress toward the middle. PSA 10 has very few sales to go on — just 14 for the SAR print and 13 for MUR — so one or two high-price sales are enough to move the whole line. That means the SAR’s +23.8% and MUR’s +31.3% weekly moves shouldn’t be read as a stable trend — they reflect a handful of sales in an extremely thin sample.
Which card fell the furthest, and which has the thinnest PSA 10 sample?
Mega Darkrai ex SAR (#3) fell the furthest, down -39.2% raw over 30 days. Mega Rayquaza ex MUR (#2) has the thinnest PSA 10 sample, at just 13 sales — its +31.3% rise is a textbook thin-sample price jump and shouldn’t be taken at face value.
Mega Charizard X ex is priced far below the other cards — why does it still make the list?
Because the eligibility bar is a relative decline (25% or more), not an absolute price. Mega Charizard X ex (#5) has a raw median of just ¥5,000 but fell 30.5% over 30 days — a similar magnitude to the higher-priced cards, which clears the bar. Its PSA 10 sale count (311) is also the deepest on this list, showing the graded market stays active even at an entry-level price point.
Looking for one of these cards?
All 5 Japan-market Pokémon cards above saw their price fall this week, down -12.8% to -39.2%. Search Collect2Day directly for live listing prices.
Search Japan Pokémon Cards ›These figures reflect actual completed sales in Japan’s market as of 2026-09-14 (HKT) — not a price forecast — and exclude B4U/BSO self-purchases. For live listing prices, check the Collect2Day pages directly.