Inside any one set, the card that sells most often and the card that absorbs the most money are usually not the same card. Six cards below, all from M2a “MEGA Dream ex”: the Mega Gengar ex at the top took ¥1,577,597 of ungraded turnover in a week, roughly 70% of the six combined. The Gengar error card in fourth took ¥77,777 — and has the most PSA 10 sales of any of them, at 178. Both are “hot”. They are hot in entirely different ways, and this is how to tell which.
The short version
- Turnover = sales × weighted average price. It answers where the money is. Sale count answers where the people are. They routinely point at different cards.
- Top rarities take almost all the money. Three of these six hold 94% of the ungraded turnover; the other three share 6%.
- The crowd is on the other side. Those three cheap cards have 381 PSA 10 sales between them, against 216 for the three expensive ones.
Turnover and sale count answer different questions
Calling a card “hot” blends two things that can be measured separately. One is how many people are buying — the sale count. The other is how much money went in — the turnover, which is the sale count times the weighted average price. Neither determines the other: a ¥2,000 card selling twenty times still moves less money than a ¥50,000 card selling once.
The six below are ordered by ungraded turnover, largest first. Re-sort them by ungraded sale count and the order becomes 1st, 4th, 5th, 6th, 2nd, 3rd — everything but the top slot reshuffles. Same data, same week, different metric, different leaderboard. Knowing what a ranking measures is worth more than memorising the ranking.
Each card also carries its PSA 10 median and sale count for contrast. Those do not feed the ranking: it counts ungraded sales only, and PSA 10 is a separate market, so the two sale counts cannot be added together or compared directly.
Six cards, by ungraded turnover
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#1
M2a 240/193・2025 メガゲンガーex SAR
Mega Gengar ex
M2a 240/193 · Special Art Rare (SAR)
High class pack “MEGA Dream ex” (MEGAドリームex)
Ungraded median ¥58,000 · 28 sales
Ungraded turnover this week (sales × weighted average)
¥1,577,597
4-week trend (ungraded weighted average; sale count beneath)
Find this card on Collect2Day ›What this card demonstrates
One card holding 69.8% of the six cards’ combined turnover. It is built from 28 ungraded sales at a ¥56,343 weighted average — not an unusually high price, not an unusually large count, but both high at once. The four-week trend shows the price barely moving (+0.5% this week) while the count climbs from 19 to 28. More buyers at a flat price usually means steady absorption at that level rather than anyone chasing it upward.
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#2
M2a 250/193・2025 メガカイリューex MUR
Mega Dragonite ex
M2a 250/193 · Mega Ultra Rare (MUR)
High class pack “MEGA Dream ex” (MEGAドリームex)
Ungraded median ¥36,000 · 10 sales
Ungraded turnover this week (sales × weighted average)
¥379,352
4-week trend (ungraded weighted average; sale count beneath)
Find this card on Collect2Day ›What this card demonstrates
About a quarter of the leader’s turnover, but a completely different animal. Ten ungraded sales in the week at ¥37,935, up 7.3% — the largest ungraded weekly gain of the six. Its PSA 10 median of ¥85,999 sits close to the leader’s ¥87,500, yet on 42 sales against 84. Same pricing, half the turnover: it ranks second not because it is cheap, but because so few copies are being released.
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#3
M2a 237/193・2025 ロケット団のミュウツーex SAR
Team Rocket’s Mewtwo ex
M2a 237/193 · Special Art Rare (SAR)
High class pack “MEGA Dream ex” (MEGAドリームex)
Ungraded median ¥16,999 · 10 sales
Ungraded turnover this week (sales × weighted average)
¥166,299
4-week trend (ungraded weighted average; sale count beneath)
Find this card on Collect2Day ›What this card demonstrates
¥166,299, another step down from the top two. What makes it interesting is the imbalance: 90 PSA 10 sales against 10 ungraded. Once the ungraded price sits below about ¥20,000, grading costs weigh heavily against the card’s value, so buyers tend to buy an already slabbed PSA 10 instead. The crowd concentrates in the graded market and the ungraded side goes thin and jumpy — this week’s −8.6% is built on ten sales.
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#4
M2a 230/193・2025 メガゲンガーex MA (Chinese-foil error)
Mega Gengar ex, Chinese-foil error
M2a 230/193 · Mega Attack Rare (MA)
High class pack “MEGA Dream ex” (MEGAドリームex)
Ungraded median ¥3,000 · 25 sales
Ungraded turnover this week (sales × weighted average)
¥77,777
4-week trend (ungraded weighted average; sale count beneath)
Find this card on Collect2Day ›What this card demonstrates
The pivotal comparison in this piece. Its 178 PSA 10 sales are the most of any card here, but its ungraded turnover of ¥77,777 puts it fourth. Rank by sale count instead and it moves up to second. One card, two metrics, two positions. Note also that the two tiers move in opposite directions: ungraded −32.8% this week while PSA 10 is +0.7%. Selling pressure at the cheap end lands on ungraded copies; the slabbed ones hold.
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#5
M2a 199/193・2025 コダック AR
Psyduck
M2a 199/193 · Art Rare (AR)
High class pack “MEGA Dream ex” (MEGAドリームex)
Ungraded median ¥2,000 · 15 sales
Ungraded turnover this week (sales × weighted average)
¥35,236
4-week trend (ungraded weighted average; sale count beneath)
Find this card on Collect2Day ›What this card demonstrates
¥35,236 in turnover — small — yet 107 PSA 10 sales, participation on a par with far more expensive cards. What it demonstrates is the grading premium: an ungraded median of ¥2,000 against a PSA 10 median of ¥13,500, one of the widest multiples of the six. Almost all of this card’s value rides on condition, and a condition premium never shows up in an ungraded turnover figure at all.
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#6
M2a 232/193・2025 メガカイリューex MA (Chinese-foil error)
Mega Dragonite ex, Chinese-foil error
M2a 232/193 · Mega Attack Rare (MA)
High class pack “MEGA Dream ex” (MEGAドリームex)
Ungraded median ¥1,999 · 11 sales
Ungraded turnover this week (sales × weighted average)
¥22,518
4-week trend (ungraded weighted average; sale count beneath)
Find this card on Collect2Day ›What this card demonstrates
The smallest turnover here at ¥22,518. But it is the only card of the six whose PSA 10 tier gained double digits this week — +10.4% on 96 sales — while the 4th card, from the very same printing error, managed +0.7%. Identical defect, and PSA 10 buyers are clearly picking characters within the error category rather than buying any error going. Its ungraded side matches the 4th card’s: −15.5% on 11 sales, too thin to read a direction from.
Three questions to ask of any set ranking
FAQ
How is turnover calculated?
Sale count multiplied by the weighted average sale price. The figures here cover one week of ungraded sales with a minimum of three, and single outlier prices have been excluded. PSA 10 sales do not count toward it.
Why not just look at the median price?
A median tells you roughly what one copy costs, not how much the market committed to the card. The 5th card’s median is ¥2,000 and the 2nd card’s is ¥36,000, but what actually separates their turnover is count times price, not price alone.
Why can’t PSA 10 and ungraded sale counts be added together?
They are different products with different buyers. Ungraded is the card; PSA 10 is that card sealed and graded gem-mint by a third party. Two of the six cards here have nearly all their activity on the PSA 10 side, and summing the counts would erase exactly that distinction.
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